15. Investment property
The investment property can be specified as follows:
2023 | 2022 | |
Investment property as at 1 January | 9,448 | 9,540 |
Capital expenditure on property | 80 | 64 |
Transfer from property under construction | 57 | 75 |
Property sales | (39) | (47) |
Right of use assets (land leases) | (19) | 3 |
Revaluation | (853) | (187) |
Investment property as at 31 December | 8,674 | 9,448 |
The fair value of completed investment property has been determined on a market value basis, in accordance with International Valuation Standards (IVS), as set out by the International Valuation Standards Council (IVSC).
The valuation is prepared on an aggregated ungeared basis. As set out in Note 3, in arriving at their estimates of market values, the valuation experts have used their market knowledge and professional judgement rather than relying exclusively on comparable historical transaction data.
The valuations were performed by accredited external independent real estate valuation experts with a recognised and relevant professional qualification and with recent experience in the location and category of the investment property being appraised.
The fair value of the assets is driven by the net cash flows generated by the assets, which are taken into account by the market, in combination with the discount rate development. The generated cash flow is the net rental income plus the net sales proceeds from the sale of individual units.
The following main inputs have been used in the valuation of the investment property:
2023 | 2022 | |||||
Average | Sell | Hold | Sell | Hold | ||
Discount rate (%) | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 4.9 | ||
Exit yield (%) | 5.3 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 4.5 | ||
Rental growth (%) | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.3 | ||
Vacant value growth (%) | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | ||
Sell | 2023 | 2022 | ||||
Region | primary | secondary | other | primary | secondary | other |
Discount rate (%) | 6.2 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 6.4 |
Exit yield (%) | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.2 |
Rental growth (%) | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
Vacant value growth (%) | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
Hold | 2023 | 2022 | ||||
Region | primary | secondary | other | primary | secondary | other |
Discount rate (%) | 5.5 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.5 |
Exit yield (%) | 5.1 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 5.2 |
Rental growth (%) | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
Vacant value growth (%) | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
Sell | 2023 | 2022 | ||||
Rental segment | <808 | 808 - 1200 | > 1200 | <763 | 763 - 1200 | > 1200 |
Discount rate (%) | 6.0 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.7 |
Exit yield (%) | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.3 |
Rental growth (%) | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
Vacant value growth (%) | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
Hold | 2023 | 2022 | ||||
Rental segment | <808 | 808 - 1200 | > 1200 | <763 | 763 - 1200 | > 1200 |
Discount rate (%) | 6.4 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
Exit yield (%) | 6.3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 4.3 |
Rental growth (%) | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
Vacant value growth (%) | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 |
During the first half of 2023 the market values dropped -7.2% driven by higher risk perception due to increasing interest rates and market uncertainties in combination with adjusted index rates and lower transaction volumes against lower prices. During the second half of the year this trend changed, but we still had negative revaluations (-1.5% in H2) due to further yield expansion.
External independent real estate valuation experts determine the fair values using discounted cash flow models with a 10-year period. When calculating the present values, the valuation experts use discount rates in the DCF models to account for the time value of money and reflect the inherent risk with regard to the cash flows in the model. Exit yields are indicators used to determine the exit values that can be achieved at the end of the DCF lifetime. Rental growth is the average rental growth in the 10-year period of the discounted cash flow model. Vacant value growth is the average vacant value growth in the 10-year period that is assumed in the cash flow model.
Sensitivity analysis
The table below presents the sensitivity of the valuation to changes in the significant parameters driving the underlying valuation of investment property. The analysis was carried on the investment property value excluding the value of the right-of-use asset (land leases).
-100 bps | Fair value | +100 bps | |
As at 31 December 2022 | |||
Discount rate | 9,827 | 9,302 | 8,762 |
Exit yield | 9,996 | 9,302 | 8,798 |
Rental growth | 9,013 | 9,302 | 9,594 |
Vacant value growth | 9,083 | 9,302 | 9,522 |
As at 31 December 2023 | |||
Discount rate | 9,006 | 8,547 | 8,076 |
Exit yield | 9,028 | 8,547 | 8,185 |
Rental growth | 8,305 | 8,547 | 8,792 |
Vacant value growth | 8,347 | 8,547 | 8,748 |
Right of use assets
Under the investment property the right of use of land leases are included as an integral part of the investment property value.
To reconcile the by external independent real estate valuation experts appraised investment property, the value of the investment property value presented should be adjusted by the land lease right of use.
2023 | 2022 | |
Investment property value | 8,674 | 9,448 |
less Right of use | (127) | (146) |
Valuation as per valuation report | 8,547 | 9,302 |