Outlook for 2026
Market developments
The broader economic environment for 2026 combines stability with uncertainty. Household consumption remains a key contributor to economic growth, supported by rising real wages and a structurally tight labour market. De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) expects the Dutch economy to grow by around 1.2% in 2026, with inflation easing toward 2.4% while still remaining elevated due to domestic price pressures (source: DNB). However, geopolitical tensions and trade frictions continue to influence economic dynamics.
The Dutch residential investment market, which showed renewed resilience in 2025, is expected to continue its gradual improvement in 2026. The current economic developments combined with the high demand of housing supports the investment climate. Financing conditions are normalising and liquidity within the residential segment is expected to improve. Institutional capital continues to focus on stable residential assets, with particular interest in mid‑rent and ESG‑aligned housing (source CBRE). However, institutional investors remain cautious about increasing their exposure to the Dutch residential market. This is primarily driven by an overallocation to (residential) real estate within their investment portfolios, alongside geopolitical and economic uncertainty and increased government regulation in recent years. Furthermore, feasibility of new developments remains under pressure because of high construction costs and regulatory constraints.
Looking ahead, the long‑term fundamentals for Dutch residential investment remain positive. House prices are expected to grow by roughly 4% annually in 2026 and 2027, although at a slower pace than in recent years (source: DNB). Market conditions are supported by strong housing fundamentals: persistent demand, rising rents and purchase prices, and government measures aimed at improving affordability and sustainability. These measures, however, will not resolve the structural housing shortage in the short term. Investor confidence is increasing but may still be influenced by regulatory shifts and broader economic uncertainty. Even so, the underlying outlook for the sector remains robust. For residential investors, value creation will increasingly come from solid operational performance, disciplined rent growth and maintaining high‑quality, energy‑efficient homes. Within this environment, Vesteda’s strategy and portfolio positioning provide a strong foundation for long‑term stability and both societal and financial performance.
Impact on our portfolio
Given the quality and resilience of our portfolio, Vesteda is well positioned to navigate the market developments expected for 2026. We anticipate a solid operational performance, supported by persistent demand for our homes aimed at middle‑income households. Inflation may continue to affect tenant affordability and our operating expenses, while interest rate developments remain relevant for our financing costs. These factors reinforce the importance of disciplined financial management.
In 2026 we will accelerate our progression toward the desired portfolio: a stronger focus on affordable mid‑rent homes in economically resilient regions. By divesting assets that no longer align with this strategic direction, we enhance the resilience, affordability, and long‑term performance of the fund. We will continue to invest in the quality, sustainability and long‑term resilience of our assets. These investments strengthen performance and further future‑proof the portfolio.
Events in 2026
Liquidity review
On 1 February 2026, the liquidity review period started, which takes place once every seven years. The total value of the indicative redemption requests amount to €4.1 billion, representing 52% of total equity. Investors may revise their indicative redemption requests downward until 20 April, after which the requests will be finalised. To ensure a careful and orderly execution of the redemptions, Vesteda will develop a liquidity plan over the coming months, which must be submitted to investors for approval in June 2026. In accordance with the fund terms, Vesteda has up to three years to complete the redemption process. Redemptions of up to 10% of equity (€7,972 million INREV NAV as at year end 2025, see page 206 of this consolidated annual report) must be settled within 18 months, no later than 1 August 2027. During the redemption period, Vesteda may not reduce its debt position (other than through short-term repayments), make new investments, or accept additional redemption requests.
The liquidity plan will set out the redemption strategy to meet the redemption requests and remain compliant with all debt obligations. The measures in the liquidity plan may include exploring opportunities with new institutional investors, capping/deferring distribution payments, exploring disposal/redemption vehicles, utilising Vesteda’s existing undrawn debt facilities or entering into new debt facilities (including the issuance of subordinated hybrid instruments, and mortgaged-debt facilities) and non-core asset sales.
Consent solicitation
In relation to non-core asset disposals as part of the liquidity plan there could be legal uncertainty on the level of assets disposals compliant with Vesteda’s debt obligations. In seeking clarity on this matter, Vesteda announced on 12 March 2026 to the holders of the Bonds and Private placement Notes (the “Notes”) to consent to the modification of the terms and conditions of these Notes in order to amend the ‘cessation of business’ Event of Default and to include a new interest rate step-up provision in the relevant conditions, all as proposed by Vesteda for approval by a separate Extraordinary Resolution of the holders of the outstanding Notes.
The outcome of this consent solicitation is expected on 7 April 2026. Nevertheless, Vesteda has sufficient headroom for the upcoming 12 months, utilising its existing undrawn debt facilities or entering into new debt facilities, including the issuance of subordinated hybrid instruments, up to the permitted leverage limit of 40% under Vesteda’s Terms & Conditions.
Vesteda intends to take into account the results of the consent solicitation which should provide Vesteda with increased flexibility for the purposes of determining an appropriate and orderly redemption strategy.
See for more information on https://www.vesteda.com/en/corporate/investment/debt.
Affordable Living Venture
In February 2026, Vesteda entered into a collaboration with ABP under the name Affordable Living Venture (ALV), with initial committed capital of €400 million. ALV aims to realise more than 1,100 rental homes in the coming years, at least half of which will consist of affordable homes within the mid‑rental segment as defined in the Affordable Rent Act, targeting middle‑income households. The partnership will focus on new‑build developments in urban areas with the highest pressure on the housing market.
Bridge facility
In February 2026, Vesteda signed a Standby Bride Loan Agreement with two banks, securing a €600 million bridge facility. This facility provides financial flexibility for redemption payments.
S&P Global Ratings lowers Vesteda Residential Fund
On 11 March 2026, S&P Global Ratings lowered Vesteda’s long‑term issuer credit rating to ‘BBB’ from ‘A‑’ and placed the rating on CreditWatch Negative. According to S&P, the two‑notch downgrade was primarily driven by the material indicative redemption requests received from investors in the ongoing liquidity review, amounting to a maximum of €4.1 billion, as well as the expected impact on Vesteda’s credit metrics and asset base. S&P expects to resolve the CreditWatch within the next six months, once further clarity is obtained on Vesteda’s liquidity plan and the timing and execution of the redemption process.
There were no further significant events after the reporting date.